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Forecast the economic conditions in the United States in the first and second quarters of 2022.

by | Apr 26, 2022 | Economics

 

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You will act as an economic forecaster for the United States economy.
Accordingly, you will prepare a report including a forecast for the United
States economy. The forecast will include what you expect the performance of the
economy will be in the first and second quarters of 2022. As a forecaster, you will use
indicators from the data sets that are available in the course web page. Some of these
indicators are released on a daily, weekly or a monthly basis before the end of a quarter.
Forecasters use these indicators to forecast the performance of the economy in that
specific quarter.
You will use various indicators for production, income, consumption, investment,
inventory, housing, inflation, unemployment, wages, interest rates, exchange rates,
stock prices, bond prices, oil prices, the trade balance, and others. The indicators are
available in the web page and will be discussed in class. You will use these data to
forecast the economic conditions in the United States in the first and second quarters of
2022. In addition, you will explain the impact of the adopted monetary policy and fiscal
policy on the economy. In your forecast, you will describe how the economy is expected
to perform. This is based on the information available in 2021 and 2022, and your
knowledge about policy decisions. You need to use your understanding of
macroeconomic theory to explain and support your forecast.
Your forecast will be divided into seven sections.
The first section will include a forecast of gross domestic product. This section will include a forecast of the components of national income including consumption spending, investment spending, government spending, and net exports.
The second section will include a forecast of inflation, core inflation, energy prices, and food prices.
The third section will include a forecast of the labor market which includes unemployment, underemployment and wages.
The fourth section will include a forecast of asset prices.
The fifth section will include a discussion on your prediction of the business cycle.
The sixth section will discuss the effect of the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy on the economy.
The seventh section will forecast the value of the currency.
Your grade will depend on the sufficient and appropriate use of data and indicators.
Your grade will also depend on the ability to link economic theory and intuition to the
analysis.
Indicators
The indicators are available in the following webpage:
https://business.fullerton.edu/faculty/sherif-khalifa/Data
Format
The paper needs to be typewritten. The first page is a cover page that only includes
your name and your ID. The analysis should be included in a maximum of 6 pages. Any
bibliography or other material, such as tables and graphs, should be included
afterwards. The font should be no less than 12, and the format is single spacing.

 

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